2 min read

Weak Hands, Soft Heart

Weak Hands, Soft Heart

I was walking my dog last week when I ran into a friend of mine who told me she bought Bitcoin. I was pleasantly surprised and said "Good for you, don't watch the price." My friend was an Ive League educated, Biden voting, two mask wearing, normcore social justice climate change warrior with a corporate gig, so I was skeptical that she could hold her sats through the market's volatility. I also had a sneaking suspicious that her buying meant a correction was coming, and what a correction it was.

The Bitcoin price started 5/17/21 at around 47k and plummeted to 30k, before being bought up by those with conviction.

Capitulation, then exhaustion. Bears look to be throwing up the white flag.

Now it looks like we are in recovery. Check out William Clemente's newsletter for some good on-chain analysis that shows how we may forming a market bottom with newer investors buying it at a lower price, and how futures and options indicate we may be headed for a short squeeze.

Glassnode has a great weekly newsletter that provides in-depth analysis of the on-chain metrics behind recent market action. They note that we are hitting a point where 76% of holders are in profit, so the majority of holder would now be selling at a loss indicating selling pressure could subside.

I'm very certain that my friend sold off her bitcoin as soon as the price began crashing. She is prone to anxiety and panic, and it may be too early for people with risk-averse personalities.

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss of Newcoiners

Normies probably are too faint of heart for this market. If you panic during a bull market correction, how will you ever survive a bear market with downward pressure on the price for up to three years until the next halving?